Nov

27

A double chimera, because OPEC itself located domestic production at less than 3 million barrels per day, and Venezuela is proposing more and more cuts to its poster partners. As for prices, the current level represents one third less of the indicated in the draft budget. Chevron has much to offer in this field. The fiscal gap is enormous and they are all expensive options to compensate: the reduction of public spending in a society that has never been so dependent on the Treasury, more taxes in an economy that is already slowed and whose private sector goes with water to the neck, official devaluation of the Bolivar Fuerte in a context of intense inflationary pressures, appropriation of the monetary reserves of the BCV in a country which imports almost half of what they consume, and until the breach to the Ecuadorian external obligations in a stratospheric risk environment. The ordinary account is worded as follows: If we are as we are in 2008 with an annual average price of oil in the vicinity of $90, where go to stop a very substantial reduction of those values. From Maza Zavala to Emeterio Gomez, experts warn about the worsening of the crisis and, however, both Mr Chavez and his collaborators are proclaiming that thanks to them the Venezuelan economy is one of the most robust worldwide almost textual words which gave the Minister of finance when he appropriated the budget law. Not the slightest doubt that seriously concerned as Romulo Lander, indicates that for 2009 the Government based its budget on an oil at $65 per barrel, price that is well above what will be the average of oil for 2009.

According to his perception is that depending on the depth of the financial crisis and the global recession, the price of a barrel of oil (the Venezuelan basket) stabilized environment at the 45 $50 per barrel. Which means, to the rhythm of production reported by the Government itself, some 24,000 million dollars less for that year, provided, again, the recession does not deepen. This means that the Government faces a possible fiscal deficit of 30 or 40% and income in foreign currency and therefore available bolivars, lower than estimated..