Identify key uncertainties: some events and the results cannot be predicted. You may receive a technology new and unexpected; a great political change may bring as a result a completely unexpected act approval; a natural disaster may occur, you have to make a list of uncertain events and its consequences. 5. A scenario is a story that describes in detail a way in which the future can develop. The main purpose of the first round of scenarios is not to produce a few scenarios that accurately predict future, if not rather achieve a deeper understanding of the forces that act in its sector.

Create first round of scenarios: a scenario is a story that describes a scenario could focus on a continuation without surprises of the present; another might include all the worst events that could occur; and a third person could imagine a future in which everything proves beautifully. 6 Start the institutional learning, shows the first round of scenarios to the greatest number of people. Investigate with partners how they could respond to each of these possible worlds. Consider these scenarios, managers will be forced to question their own model of reality, and to change it if needed. 7 Build the final scenarios; After listening to the point of view of others must create the final set scenarios to be used by executives in their decision-making. Teams must consider the strategic challenges that presents each scenario and identify core competencies that will be needed to succeed in this world.

8 A decision; Once the final scenarios arise you must decide a course of action. The company can either bet on the future to a scenario or remain flexible enough to take advantage of multiple scenarios. Alejandro Rutto Martinez is a writer and journalist italo-colombiano who also teaches in several universities. He is the author of four books on ethics and leadership and is contained in three anthologies of Colombian authors.